Metapopulation heterogeneities in host mobility, productivity, and immunocompetency always increase virulence and infectiousness.

ABSTRACT: The epidemiology and evolution of diseases unfold in populations that are rarely homogeneous. Instead, hosts infected by pathogens often form metapopulations, in which local populations connected by the movement of hosts experience different demographic and epidemiological conditions. Here, we develop a general theory of the evolution of pathogens in heterogeneous metapopulations. We reveal the following key insights into the evolution of pathogen virulence and infectiousness: (1) When the mobility (movement rate), productivity (birth rate and carrying capacity), or immunocompetency (immunity-loss rate) differ among local populations, this variance always increases pathogen virulence and infectiousness (2) The increment of pathogen virulence caused by such heterogeneity is approximately pr

SUBMITTER: Sato M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11670240 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature