Forecast of total health expenditure on China's ageing population: a system dynamics model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

China is currently at a turning point as its total population has started to decline, and therefore faces issues related to caring for an ageing population, which will require an increase in Total Health Expenditure (THE). Therefore, the ability to forecast China's future THE is essential.

Methods

We developed two THE System Dynamics (SD) models using Stella Architect 3.4 to simulate China's THE from 2000 to 2060. The constant prices THE SD model estimates THE under low, medium, and high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) scenarios. The current prices THE SD model serves as a robust calibration check. In addition, we developed a new total Gross Domestic Production (GDP) forecast model to estimate THE/GDP over the same period.

Results

Our simulation results reveal a

SUBMITTER: Luo S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11681677 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature