Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios.

ABSTRACT: In the realm of infectious disease control, accurate modeling of the transmission dynamics is pivotal. As human mobility and commuting patterns are key components of communicable disease spread, we introduce a novel travel time aware metapopulation model. Our model aims to enhance estimations of disease transmission. By providing more reliable assessments on the efficacy of interventions, curtailing personal rights or human mobility behavior through interventions can be minimized. The proposed model is an advancement over traditional compartmental models, integrating explicit transmission on travel and commute, a factor available in agent-based models but often neglected with metapopulation models. Our approach employs a multi-edge graph ODE-based (Graph-ODE) model, which represents the in

SUBMITTER: Zunker H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11684649 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature