An Experimental Validation Test of Ecological Coexistence Theory to Forecast Extinction Under Rising Temperatures.

ABSTRACT: Interactions between species pose considerable challenges for forecasting the response of ecological communities to global changes. Coexistence theory could address this challenge by defining the conditions species can or cannot persist alongside competitors. However, although coexistence theory is increasingly deployed for projections, these frameworks have rarely been subjected to critical multigenerational validation tests. Here, using a highly replicated mesocosm experiment, I directly test if the modern coexistence theory approach can predict time-to-extirpation in the face of rising temperatures within the context of competition from a heat-tolerant species. Competition hastened expiration and the modelled point of coexistence breakdown overlapped with mean observations under both st

SUBMITTER: Terry JCD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11687354 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature