Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Phenological Changes across the Contiguous United States.

ABSTRACT: Phenological indicators (PI) are used to study changes to animal and plant behavior in response to seasonal cycles, and they can be useful to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Here, multiple global climate models and emission scenarios are used to drive dynamically downscaled simulations using the WRF model over the CONUS. The wintertime dormancy of plants (chilling units or "CU"), timing of spring onset (Extended Spring Indices or "SI"), and frequency of proceeding false springs are calculated from regional climate simulations covering historical (1995-2005) and future periods (2025-2100). Southern parts of the CONUS show projected CU decreases (inhibiting some plants from flowering or fruiting), while the northern CONUS experiences an increase (possibly caus

SUBMITTER: Mallard MS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11694835 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature