Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations.

ABSTRACT: The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated

SUBMITTER: Bajaj K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11698460 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature