Modeling Climate-Driven Vegetation Changes Under Contrasting Temperate and Arid Conditions in the Mediterranean Basin.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates climate change impacts on spontaneous vegetation, focusing on the Mediterranean basin, a hotspot for climatic changes. Two case study areas, Monti Sibillini (central Italy, temperate) and Sidi Makhlouf (Southern Tunisia, arid), were selected for their contrasting climates and vegetation. Using WorldClim's CMCC-ESM2 climate model, future vegetation distribution was predicted for 2050 and 2080 under SSP 245 (optimistic) and 585 (pessimistic) scenarios. Two spectral indices, NDVI (temperate area) and SAVI (arid area), served as vegetation proxies, classified into three classes using K-means (NDVI: high = mainly associated with woodlands, medium = shrublands, continuous grasslands and crops, low = discontinuous grasslands, bare soil, and rocks; SAVI: high = mainly assoc

SUBMITTER: Bianchini M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11724208 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature