Understanding Uncertainty in Market-Mediated Responses to US Oilseed Biodiesel Demand: Sensitivity of ILUC Emission Estimates to GLOBIOM Parametric Uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of biofuels depend on uncertain estimates of induced land use change (ILUC) and subsequent emissions from carbon stock changes. Demand for oilseed-based biofuels is associated with particularly complex market and supply chain dynamics, which must be considered. Using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM, this study explores the uncertainty in market-mediated impacts and ILUC-related emissions from increasing demand for soybean biodiesel in the United States in the period 2020-2050. A one-at-a-time (OAT) analysis and a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis are performed to assess the sensitivity of modeled ILUC-GHG emissions intensities (gCO₂e/MJ) to varying key economic and biophysical model parameters. Additionally, the influence of the

SUBMITTER: Escobar N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11741104 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature