The Future of HIV: Challenges in meeting the 2030 <i>Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. (EHE)</i> reduction goal.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To predict the burden of HIV in the United States (US) nationally and by region, transmission type, and race/ethnicity through 2030.

Methods

Using publicly available data from the CDC NCHHSTP AtlasPlus dashboard, we generated 11-year prospective forecasts of incident HIV diagnoses nationally and by region (South, non-South), race/ethnicity (White, Hispanic/Latino, Black/African American), and transmission type (Injection-Drug Use, Male-to-Male Sexual Contact (MMSC), and Heterosexual Contact (HSC)). We employed weighted (W) and unweighted (UW) n-sub-epidemic ensemble models, calibrated using 12 years of historical data (2008-2019), and forecasted trends for 2020-2030. We compared results to identify persistent, concerning trends across models.

Resu

SUBMITTER: Bleichrodt AM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11741459 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature