Dengue dynamics, predictions, and future increase under changing monsoon climate in India.

ABSTRACT: The global burden of dengue disease is escalating under the influence of climate change, with India contributing a third of the total. The non-linearity and regional heterogeneity inherent in the climate-dengue relationship and the lack of consistent data makes it difficult to make useful predictions for effective disease prevention. The current study investigates these non-linear climate-dengue links in Pune, a dengue hotspot region in India with a monsoonal climate and presents a model framework for predicting both the near-term and future dengue mortalities. Dengue mortality and meteorological conditions over a twelve-year period (2004-2015) are analyzed using statistical tools and machine learning methods. Our findings point to a significant influence of temperature, rainfall, and rela

SUBMITTER: Sophia Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11750985 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature