Mathematical and statistical approaches in epidemiological investigation of hospital infection: A case study of the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in Korea.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical and statistical methods are invaluable in epidemiological investigations, enhancing our understanding of disease transmission dynamics and informing effective control measures. In this study, we presented a method to estimate transmissibility using patient-level data, with application to the 2015 MERS outbreak at Pyeongtaek St. Mary's Hospital, the Republic of Korea. We developed a stochastic model based on individual case data to derive a likelihood function for disease transmission. Through scenario-based analysis, we explored transmission dynamics, including the role of superspreaders, and investigated how mask-wearing impacted infection control within the hospital. Our findings indicated that the superspreader during the MERS outbreak had approximately 25 times higher tran

SUBMITTER: Ko Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11759389 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature