A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests.

ABSTRACT: Forecasting emergent pest spread is paramount to mitigating their impacts. For host-specialized pests, epidemiological models of spread through a single host population are well developed. However, most pests attack multiple host species; the challenge is predicting which communities are most vulnerable to infestation. Here, we develop a phylogenetically-informed approach to predict establishment of emergent multi-host pests across heterogeneous landscapes. We model a beetle-pathogen symbiotic complex on trees, introduced from Southeast Asia to California. The phyloEpi model for likelihood of establishment was predicted from the phylogenetic composition of woody species in the invaded community and the influence of temperature on beetle reproduction. Plant communities dominated by close re

SUBMITTER: Lynch SC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11760915 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature