Changes in physical characteristics of extreme rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon based on downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 models.

ABSTRACT: We identified a set of bias-corrected and downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models capable of accurately simulating the observed mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall, extreme rain events (EREs) and their respective interannual variability. The future changes in EREs projected by these models for four climate change scenarios-Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were estimated using percentile thresholds. Under the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, at the end of the century, summer monsoon season total rainfall exhibits a 1.1-fold increase, while extreme rainfall intensity demonstrates a more substantial rise of 1.3-fold. The spatial variability of seasonal total rainfall increases by 1.2-fold compared to the baseline period, with an

SUBMITTER: Varghese SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11779905 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature