Current and projected incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in 43 countries: an analysis of the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The aetiology of pancreatic cancer is complex, and there is limited research on its incidence. We aimed to investigate the incidence trends of pancreatic cancer in 43 countries and predict trends up to 2030.

Methods

The annual incidence of pancreatic cancer was obtained from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, which comprises 108 cancer registries from 43 countries. Based on available data, we calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100 000 people for 1988-2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of new cases and incidence rates up to 2030.

Results

From 1988 to 2012, the global incidence rate of pancreatic cancer showed a continuously increasing trend, with the ASR increasing from 5.89 in 1988 to 6.

SUBMITTER: Shou S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11784423 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature