Goal-line oracles: Exploring accuracy of wisdom of the crowd for football predictions.

ABSTRACT: Football's inherent volatility and low-scoring nature present unique challenges for predicting outcomes. This study investigates the efficacy of Wisdom of the Crowd in forecasting football match outcomes as well as expected goals (XG) across a Premier League season. Participants predicted team goal counts, which were then compared to actual expected goals (XG) and match results. Results across 760 team predictions reveal that while Wisdom of the Crowd accurately predicts XG on average, it overestimates 'big-6' teams and underestimates others, hinting at inherent biases. Notably, however, collective crowd predictions outperform individual estimates consistently, affirming the power of collective intelligence. Furthermore, when tested against betting odds, Wisdom of the Crowd demonstrates li

SUBMITTER: Madsen JK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11785260 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature