Hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modeling analyses of incidence and intervention impact.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the most affected by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection globally. This study aimed to estimate HCV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in MENA and evaluate the impact of interventions.

Methods

A mathematical model was extended and applied to 13 countries with at least one data point on the population size of PWID and HCV antibody prevalence among PWID, generating estimates for the period 2024-2030. The model was calibrated using multiple datasets, primarily derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Multivariable uncertainty analyses were conducted.

Findings

Incidence rate among PWID in the 13 countries combined was 10.4 per 100 person-years (95% UI: 8.0-14.1), with an estimated 42,364 new

SUBMITTER: Makhoul M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11786755 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature