Risk assessment of infection of COVID-19 contacts based on scenario simulation.

ABSTRACT: We constructed a rapid infection risk assessment model for contacts of COVID-19. The improved Wells-Riley model was used to estimate the probability of infection for contacts of COVID-19 in the same place and evaluate their risk grades. We used COVID-19 outbreaks that were documented to validate the accuracy of the model. We analyzed the relationship between controllable factors and infection probability and constructed common scenarios to analyze the infection risk of contacts in different scenarios. The model showed the robustness of the fitting (mean relative error = 5.89%, mean absolute error = 2.03%, root mean squared error = 2.03%, R² = 0.991). We found that improving ventilation from poorly ventilated to naturally ventilated and wearing masks can reduce the probability of

SUBMITTER: Zhang WW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11787960 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature