Dynamic Landscape of Mpox Importation Risks Driven by Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in 2022.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During the 2022 global mpox outbreak, the cumulative number of countries reporting their first imported case quickly rose in the early phase, but the importation rate subsequently slowed down, leaving many countries reporting no cases by the 2022 year-end.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of international dissemination of mpox infections incorporating sexual networks and global mobility data. We used this model to characterize the mpox importation patterns observed in 2022 and to discuss the potential of further international spread.

Results

Our proposed model better explained the observed importation patterns than models not assuming heterogeneity in sexual contacts. Estimated importation hazards decreased in most countries, surpassing the global

SUBMITTER: Jung SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11793044 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature