Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: A modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

School closures have been a prominent component of the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) response. However, their effect on viral transmission, COVID-19 mortality and health care system pressure remains incompletely understood, as traditional observational studies fall short in assessing such population-level impacts.

Methods and findings

We used a mathematical model to simulate the COVID-19 epidemics of 74 countries, incorporating observed data from 2020 to 2022 and historical school closure timelines. We then simulated a counterfactual scenario, assuming that schools remained open throughout the study period. We compared the simulated epidemics in terms of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, deaths, and hospital occu

SUBMITTER: Ragonnet R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11793732 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature