Spatial risk modelling of highly pathogenic avian influenza in France: Fattening duck farm activity matters.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the key spatial risk factors and predictive risk maps for HPAI infection in France, with a focus on the 2016-17 and 2020-21 epidemic waves. Our findings indicate that the most explanatory spatial predictor variables were related to fattening duck movements prior to the epidemic, which should be considered as indicators of farm operational status, e.g., whether they are active or not. Moreover, we found that considering the operational status of duck houses in nearby municipalities is essential for accurately predicting the risk of future HPAI infection. Our results also show that the density of fattening duck houses could be used as a valuable alternative predictor of the spatial distribution of outbreaks per municipality, as this data

SUBMITTER: Artois J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11793745 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature