COVID-19 death toll predictions show that triggering counterfactual thinking deteriorates judgmental performance.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Effective communication during a health crisis is critical as it directly influences psychological and behavioral responses that will shape the further progression of the crisis. Past research has suggested that one type of cognitive mechanism that is likely to be affected by the framing of public health messages relates to counterfactual thinking.

Methods

Based on 6731 incentivized daily forecasts collected over 377 days (from April 2020-May 2021), we investigate the role of triggering counterfactual thinking when interpreting public information regarding the daily US death toll from COVID-19.

Results

Here we show that individuals who engaged in thinking about "interventions that could have led to an alternative evolution of the death toll" prior to making

SUBMITTER: Seifert M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11794638 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature