Estimation of true dates of various flowering stages at a centennial scale by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model.

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of long-term detailed cherry flowering phenology is required for a deep understanding of the sensitivity of spring phenology to climate change and its effect on cultural ecosystem services. Neodani Usuzumi-zakura (Cerasus itosakura) is a famous cherry tree in Gifu, Japan. On the basis of detailed decadal flowering phenology information published on the World Wide Web, we estimated the probability distributions of the year-to-year variability of the true dates of first flowering (FFL), first full bloom (FFB), last full bloom (LFB), and last flowering (LFL) from 1924 to 2024 by applying a Bayesian statistical state space model explained by air temperature data. We verified the estimated values against flowering phenology records of the tree from the literature and a private collec

SUBMITTER: Shin N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11798523 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature