Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme low birth rates in U.S. counties.

ABSTRACT: The continuous declining rate of birth may cause severe worldwide problems, including population ageing and demographic imbalance. This paper aims to identify the geographic disparities and potential influential factors of the extreme downward excess of birth rates in the U.S. at the county level from 2003 to 2020. The innovative Bayesian generalized Pareto (GP) quantile regression model is employed for analysing the spatiotemporal pattern of stressful low birth rate and its association with socioeconomic, demographic, and meteorological factors. The optimal stochastic partial differential equation and autoregressive model of order one (SPDE-AR(1)) spatiotemporal structured model is selected based on common Bayesian criteria and scaled threshold weighted continuous ranked probability score

SUBMITTER: Wang K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11800446 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature