Trends in the disease burden of cystic echinococcosis in China, 1990-2044 analysis and forecasting study.

ABSTRACT: This study aims to analyze changes in the disease burden of cystic echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. Using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) database, we analyzed the trends in annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) for incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates of cystic echinococcosis in China via the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.8.0.1 software. Additionally, we applied Nordpred modeling to predict future trends in disease burden over the next 25 years. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence of cystic echinococcosis in the Chinese population showed an overall increasing trend, whereas the death and DALY rates exhibited an overall decreasing trend.

SUBMITTER: Li J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11808116 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature