Model sensitivity limits attribution of greenhouse gas emissions to polar bear demographic rates.

ABSTRACT: Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and negatively affect sea ice conditions that polar bears rely on. It is therefore important to better understand how specific emissions levels affect polar bear demography. A recent study proposed a framework to address this issue, but sensitivity to decisions rules of the approach may limit its utility. We tested how sensitive the approach is to decisions rules related to sea ice concentration, choice of subpopulation boundaries, and modeling choices for bears in the Chukchi Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulations. We found that the number of ice-free days, number of fasting days, and when 10% of reproductive females exhibited recruitment failure varied considerably depending on equally-valid decisions rules versus those used in the exis

SUBMITTER: Wilson RR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11811060 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature