Temporal trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality for asthma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Asthma poses a significant public health burden in China, affecting millions with substantial incidence and mortality. Understanding the trends and future projections of asthma incidence and mortality is crucial for healthcare planning.

Methods

We analyzed asthma incidence and mortality data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study from 1990 to 2021, calculated the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), meanwhile, employed Joinpoint regression model to assess the trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate the effects of the age, period, and cohort on the incidence and mortality. Finally, future asthma trends for the next 25 years were predicted utilizing t

SUBMITTER: Chen X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11813779 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature