The dynamic impact of investor climate sentiment on the crude oil futures market: Evidence from the Chinese market.

ABSTRACT: Climate risk has become a hot topic of global concern. This paper aims to explore the impact of investor climate sentiment (ICS) on China' s crude oil futures market, covering the period from March 27, 2018, to December 30, 2022. Firstly, this paper employs the Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method and discovers that the guiding effect of ICS on the volatility of crude oil futures (RVoil) intensifies over time, progressively becoming a pivotal factor in determining volatility. Secondly, based on the lead-lag relationship between ICS and RVoil, this study divides the sample period into five stages and confirms through the HAR model that ICS has a significant inhibitory effect on crude oil volatility during the guiding phase. In addition, incorporating ICS into the HAR model not only improves th

SUBMITTER: Liu W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11819534 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature