Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome.

ABSTRACT: Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague's impact on the Roman Empire's population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome bet

SUBMITTER: Karasaridis A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11824979 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature