Improving case fatality ratio estimates in ongoing pandemics through case-to-death time distribution analysis.

ABSTRACT: The case fatality ratio (CFR) is a vital metric for assessing the disease severity of novel pathogens. The widely used direct method of CFR estimation-the ratio of total confirmed deaths to total confirmed cases-is inherently simplistic, as it fails to account for the essential time lag between case confirmation to death, and reporting delays. These limitations often lead to biased CFR estimates, particularly in the early stages of outbreaks. This study introduces a novel approach-the distributed-delay method that, like the direct method, utilizes publicly available aggregate time-series data on cases and deaths. It estimates CFR by flexibly incorporating a case-to-death time distribution without requiring a priori assumptions on distribution parameters. Using a fitting approach to forecas

SUBMITTER: Farooq Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11825655 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature