An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 in Africa.

ABSTRACT: Modeling COVID-19 cases in Africa is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, allocating resources efficiently, and mitigating the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable populations. A recent paper by the first author provided an extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 from sixteen countries in west Africa. In this paper, we broaden our analysis to encompass data spanning all fifty four African nations over a period of forty four months. We identified extreme values as the monthly maximums of daily new cases. Utilizing the generalized extreme value distribution, we fitted the data, allowing two of its three parameters to vary linearly or quadratically in relation to the month number. Twenty six countries demonstrated significant downward trends in monthly maxi

SUBMITTER: Nadarajah S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11825754 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature