The Big Bang of an epidemic: a metapopulation approach to identify the spatiotemporal origin of contagious diseases and their universal spreading pattern.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a meta-population network. By linearizing this dynamical system, we can identify the spatial starting point(s), namely the source(s) and the initiation time of the epidemic, which we refer to as the "Big Bang" of the epidemic. Furthermore, we introduce a novel concept of effective distance to track disease spread within the network. Our analysis reveals that the contagion geometry can be represented as a line with a universal slope, for any disease type (R0) or mobility network configuration. The mathematical derivations presented in this framework are corroborated by empirical data, including observations from

SUBMITTER: Babazadeh Maghsoodlo Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11832755 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature