Measles in Canada: modelling outbreaks with variable vaccine coverage and interventions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The global incidence of measles has increased markedly since 2023. In Canada, where measles has had elimination status for more than two decades, most cases can typically be traced to travel. While the majority of Canadians are vaccinated against the measles virus, or considered immune due to previous infection, there are communities with low vaccination coverage.

Methods

In this study, we develop a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model to explore what measles outbreaks could look like upon importation into Canada under a number of scenarios, vaccination coverage levels, and public health interventions. We collect reports of real-world measles outbreaks and compare them to our model outbreaks' size and duration.

Results

Our model suggest

SUBMITTER: McNichol J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11841303 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature