PROJECTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON INTER-EPIDEMIC RISK OF RIFT VALLEY FEVER ACROSS EAST AFRICA.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease that causes sporadic, multi-country epidemics. However, RVF virus (RVFV) also circulates during inter-epidemic periods. There is limited understanding of how climate change will affect inter-epidemic RVF. Here, we project inter-epidemic RVF risk under future climate scenarios, focusing on the East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Methods

We combined data on inter-epidemic RVF outbreaks and spatially-explicit predictor variables to build a predictive model of inter-epidemic RVF risk. We validated our model using RVFV serological data from humans. We then projected inter-epidemic RVF risk for three future time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-208) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370)

SUBMITTER: Eskew EA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11844568 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature