Probabilities of reaching required diffusion of granular energy technologies in European countries.

ABSTRACT: To support discussions around the feasibility of the energy transition, we present probabilistic projections of the expected baseline diffusion of solar photovoltaics, wind power, biogases, heat pumps, and low-carbon passenger vehicles in 39 European countries for 2023-2050 under current contextual conditions. We then compare the projected capacities against those required for reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We create our projections using 72 different variants of diffusion models that we validate using hindcasting (2012-2022) and weight according to their performance. We find a notable expected growth in solar photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in the majority of European countries. However, most countries are unlikely to reach the required capaci

SUBMITTER: Zielonka N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11848487 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature