Monitoring mortality in the setting of COVID-19 pandemic control in Victoria, Australia: a time series analysis of population data.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Mortality surveillance was established in the state of Victoria just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we describe the establishment of this surveillance system, justify the modelling approach selected, and provide examples of how the interpretation of changes in mortality rates during the pandemic was influenced by the model chosen.

Methods

Registered deaths occurring in Victoria from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020 were sourced from the Victoria Death Index. Observed mortality rates were compared to a raw historical 5-year mean and to predicted means estimated from a seasonal robust regression. Differences between the observed mortality rate and the historical mean (∆MR) and excess mortality rate from the observed and predicted rates were assessed.

Result

SUBMITTER: Sundaresan L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11855116 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jan-Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature