Modeling the Potential Climatic Suitability and Expansion Risk of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick, 1917) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Under Future Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we predicted the global climatic suitability of Tuta absoluta, using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. We used species' natural occurrence records in 1981-2024 and environmental variables in 1981-2010, reflecting near-current climate conditions, for modeling. The occurrence records used for modeling excluded the data from greenhouses and summer-only presence. The optimized MaxEnt models demonstrated an excellent predictive performance; Jaccard's and Sørensen's indices were greater than 0.8. Temperature, particularly the mean daily air temperature in February (tas2), was identified as the primary influencing factor. Projections based on five global climate models (GCMs) and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicated an increasing risk of T. absoluta ex

SUBMITTER: Gao T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11856755 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature