Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints.

ABSTRACT: Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis and help guide a more efficient allocation of scarce replication resources. We elicited judgements from participants on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using an interactive structured elicitation protocol, and we conducted 29 new high-powered replications. After interacting with their peers, participant groups with lower task expertise ('beginners') updated their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than groups with greater ta

SUBMITTER: Marcoci A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11860236 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature