Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO₂ emission rates.

ABSTRACT: As global populations grow, the exposure of communities and infrastructure to volcanic hazards increases every year. Once a volcanic eruption begins, it becomes critical for risk managers to understand the likely evolution and duration of the activity to assess its impact on populations and infrastructure. Here, we report an exponential decay in satellite-derived SO₂ emission rates during the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, La Palma, Canary Islands, and show that this pattern allows a reliable and consistent forecast of the evolution of the SO₂ emissions after the first third of the total eruption duration. The eruption ended when fluxes dropped to less than 6% of their fitted maximum value, providing a useful benchmark to compare with other eruptions. Using a 1-D numeric

SUBMITTER: Esse B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11865176 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature