Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The At Risk Mental State (ARMS) (also known as the Ultra or Clinical High Risk) criteria identify individuals at high risk for psychotic disorder. However, there is a need to improve prediction as only about 18% of individuals meeting these criteria develop a psychosis with 12-months. We have developed and internally validated a prediction model using characteristics that could be used in routine practice.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, followed by focus groups with clinicians and service users to ensure that identified factors were suitable for routine practice. The model was developed using logistic regression with backwards selection and an individual participant dataset. Model performance was evaluated v

SUBMITTER: Bonnett LJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11865318 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature