Exploring different modelling approaches to forecast the community acute respiratory infections burden in children: an Italian epidemiological time series study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in young children pose a significant global health challenge, leading to high rates of illness and death. They are estimated to be the fourth leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly impacting children under five. This study aimed to identify the most effective time series model(s) for forecasting the epidemiological season burden of ARIs for the current 2023/2024 period in Italy.

Methods

Data on the burden of ARIs' in children aged 0-14 years were retrieved from Pedianet, an Italian paediatric primary care database which includes over 200 family paediatricians. We analysed monthly incidence rates of ARIs from September 2010 to September 2023, following the typical seasonal pattern of these infections. Several forecast

SUBMITTER: Boracchini R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11869704 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature