Forecasting cardiovascular disease risk and burden in China from 2020 to 2030: a simulation study based on a nationwide cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a significant public health challenge in China. This study aimed to project the burden of CVD from 2020 to 2030 using a nationwide cohort and to simulate the potential impact of various control measures on morbidity and mortality.

Methods

An agent-based model was employed to simulate annual CVD incidence and mortality from 2021 to 2030. The effects of different prevention and treatment interventions, modelled on international strategies, were also explored.

Results

The study included 106 259 participants. The annual CVD incidence rate is projected to increase from 0.74% in 2021 to 0.97% by 2030, with age-standardised and sex-standardised rates rising from 0.71% to 0.96%. CVD mortality is expected to rise from 0.39% in 20

SUBMITTER: Wang R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11874356 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature