Moderate climate sensitivity due to opposing mixed-phase cloud feedbacks.

ABSTRACT: Earth's climate sensitivity quantifies the ultimate change in global mean surface air temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Recent assessments estimate that Earth's climate sensitivity very likely lies between 2.3 °C and 4.7 °C, with the representation of clouds in climate models accounting for a large portion of its uncertainty. Here, we adjust the climate sensitivity of individual contemporary climate models after using satellite observations to alleviate biases in their representation of mixed-phase clouds. A resulting moderate average climate sensitivity of 3.63 ± 0.98(1σ) °C arises due to opposing responses of clouds. While increasing the proportion of liquid within cold clouds prior to CO₂ doubling increases clima

SUBMITTER: Tan I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11879870 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature