Factors driving adolescent tuberculosis incidence by age and sex in 30 high-tuberculosis burden countries: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

During adolescence, tuberculosis incidence rises, with a greater increase in males compared with females. Tuberculosis notifications and estimates infrequently disaggregate adolescent age groups. Moreover, the factors that drive the increases in overall incidence and the male-to-female (MF) ratio remain unclear.

Methods

We constructed a mechanistic model to estimate cumulative Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease incidence in the WHO's 30 high-tuberculosis burden countries (HBCs), which represent 86%-90% of global tuberculosis incidence. We derived infection risk from tuberculosis prevalence and assortative social mixing based on sex and age (10-14 years vs 15-19 years old). We adjusted age subgroup-specific risks of disease progr

SUBMITTER: Chiang SS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11883532 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature