Some new evidence using fractional integration about trends, breaks and persistence in polar amplification.

ABSTRACT: This paper uses fractional integration methods to obtain new evidence on polar amplification. The adopted modelling framework is very general since it allows the differencing parameter to take any real value, including fractional ones, and provides useful information on both the short and the long run. The analysis is carried out using monthly temperature anomaly data for both the Arctic and the Antarctic, as well as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which have been obtained from the NOAA (National Center for Environmental Information) archive. The main findings can be summarised as follows. There is evidence of Arctic amplification, since the upward trend in the Arctic data is more pronounced compared to that in the Northern Hemisphere series, but not of Antarctic amplification, where

SUBMITTER: Caporale GM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11894062 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature