Prediction of monthly occurrence number of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, China, based on SARIMA and BPNN models.

ABSTRACT: Scrub typhus poses a serious public health risk globally. Forecasting the occurrence of the disease is essential for policymakers to develop prevention and control strategies. This study investigated the application of modelling techniques to predict the occurrence of scrub typhus and establishes an early warning system aimed at providing a foundational reference for its effective prevention and control. In this study, the monthly occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City from January 2008 to December 2022 was utilized as the training set for the first part of the analysis, while the data from January 2008 to December 2019 served as the training set for the second part. Based¹ on these data, the SARIMA model, the BPNN model, and the combined SARIMA-BPNN model were developed and

SUBMITTER: Huang R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11894303 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature