Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations for Risk Prediction Model Validation.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundThe purpose of external validation of a risk prediction model is to evaluate its performance before recommending it for use in a new population. Sample size calculations for such validation studies are currently based on classical inferential statistics around metrics of discrimination, calibration, and net benefit (NB). For NB as a measure of clinical utility, the relevance of inferential statistics is doubtful. Value-of-information methodology enables quantifying the value of collecting validation data in terms of expected gain in clinical utility.MethodsWe define the validation expected value of sample information (EVSI) as the expected gain in NB by procuring a validation sample of a given size. We propose 3 algorithms for EVSI computation and compare their face validity and

SUBMITTER: Sadatsafavi M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11894915 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature