Predicting extinctions with species distribution models.

ABSTRACT: Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why the translation of SDM results to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenged and why critical SDM assumptions are unlikely to be met under climate change. Published SDM-derived extinction estimates are based on a positive relationship between range size decline and extinction risk, which empirically is not well understood. Importantly, the classification criteria used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species were not meant for this purpose and are often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably from a better understanding of the extinction risk-range decline relationship, particularly re

SUBMITTER: Zurell D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11895758 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature