Estimating HIV incidence in Turkiye: results from two mathematical models.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The number of HIV patients has been decreasing globally due to world-wide efforts to end this epidemic; however, HIV incidence has been significantly increasing in Türkiye in the last five years. This study aimed to develop mathematical models to analyze and forecast HIV incidence and prevalence in Türkiye up to 2030.

Methods

First, we utilized a Bernoulli model and estimated the annual HIV incidence for risk groups such as heterosexuals (HET), men who have sex with men (MSM), persons who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW). We then developed a dynamic compartmental model of HIV transmission and progression to estimate the incidence of HIV from 2024 to 2030 and further determine the continuum of care levels, such as the proportion of people living wit

SUBMITTER: Yaylali E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11912790 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature