A comparison of seasonal rainfall forecasts over Central America using dynamic and hybrid approaches from Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecasting system and the North American Multimodel Ensemble.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal rainfall forecasts provide information several months ahead to support decision making. These forecasts may use dynamic, statistical, or hybrid approaches, but their comparative value is not well understood over Central America. This study conducts a regional evaluation of seasonal rainfall forecasts focusing on two of the leading dynamic climate ensembles: the Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecasting system (C3S) and the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We compare the multimodel ensemble mean and individual model predictions of seasonal rainfall over key wet season periods in Central America to better understand their relative forecast skill at the seasonal scale. Three types of rainfall forecasts are compared: direct dynamic rainfall predictions from the

SUBMITTER: Kowal KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11921286 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature