Incidence trends and projections of lip and oral cavity cancer in China 1990-2021: an age-period-cohort and decomposition analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To investigate the historical trends, underlying causes, and future projections of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOCC) incidence in China.

Methods

Annual cases and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for LOCC in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were employed to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort. Bayesian APC models were applied to project future incidence trends, and decomposition analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing incidence.

Result

From 1990 to 2021, the cases and ASIR of LOCC increased substantially in male and slightly in female. The ASIR and number of cases in male were higher than that in female during the study period. The APC mode

SUBMITTER: Xie L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11924705 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature